By the way—have you been listening to the Hell Gate Podcast? For the latest on the mayor's race, you won't want to miss it. You can listen here, or wherever you get your podcasts.
If the New York City mayoral election was held today, and no one dropped out, Zohran Mamdani would win the 5-way race handily, with 50 percent of the vote among likely voters. His closest opponent, Andrew Cuomo, would get 22 percent of the vote, followed by Curtis Sliwa with 13 percent, Eric Adams with 7 percent, and Jim Walden with 1 percent.
Mamdani's romp is laid out in a comprehensive new poll released Tuesday afternoon by Public Progress Solutions and Adam Carlson's Zenith Research. The poll is notable both for its large sample size—1,453 registered voters, 1,021 of them "likely voters"—and because it was conducted in four languages: English, Spanish, Chinese and Bangla.
The poll, which ran from July 16 through July 24, and was funded through private donations to Public Progress Solutions' principal Amit Singh Bagga, shows Mamdani leading the field across all races, income brackets, education levels, genders, and major religions.
"Knowing what we know today, and provided the field remains the same, Zohran Mamdani is the next mayor of New York City," Bagga, a veteran campaign strategist, told Hell Gate. (While Bagga has advised Mamdani's campaign, the campaign had nothing to do with the poll.)
Mamdani was heralded with rewriting the electorate in the Democratic primary, bringing in legions of younger voters and South Asian voters. But this poll sees Mamdani going even further than that, garnering support from demographics that veteran political consultants insisted that the democratic socialist could never touch. Mamdani leads the field among Black union households, Latinos, East Asians, and New Yorkers in every income bracket.
"Most notably, he leads Jews overall across New York City by 17 points," Bagga said. "That is not a small lead, that is not a medium sized lead, that is a commanding lead."
In an interview with Politico on Tuesday afternoon, Cuomo threw cold water on the poll, suggesting that it did not capture the mood of everyone who would actually vote in November.